CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-08-13T18:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21175/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible in the SSE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the SSW of STEREO A COR2. Source eruption is seen as an EUV wave and dimming near AR 13078 starting around 2022-08-13T15:30Z and best seen in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195. There is a definite shock on 2022-08-17T02:16Z which indicates the arrival of a CME, but it is possible the arrival is also associated with a CME first seen on 2022-08-14T12:48Z. Apart from temperature, we observe sudden jumps in the total magnetic field, proton density, and bulk speed. A sheath region appears to follow the shock. The sheath region can be seen as having turbulent field components, elevated total magnetic field, proton density, and temperature compared to the background solar wind. The high-speed stream can be identifiable starting around 2022-08-17T14:34Z by looking at the compression in the total magnetic field and proton density and increasing bulk speed and temperature afterward.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T02:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T00:40Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -20994.67 hour(s)
Difference: 1.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy